Rupiah breaks 17,000/USD; export-heavy names rally on the cheaper peso, importers and rate-linked names fall.
Every scenario is anchored to something that actually happened on the Indonesia Stock Exchange.
2024-25: rupiah slid toward 16,700-16,800/USD on MSCI + tariff stress. Cheaper currency is a tailwind for exporters (medcos, coal, palm) and a headwind for importers / debt-funded property.
What the scenario injects, and when. Day numbers are trading days from the start of the run.
| Day | Shock | Severity | Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 3 | Earnings miss | 50% | DCII |
| Day 3 | Earnings miss | 30% | TLKM |
| Day 3 | Sector rally | 60% | CUAN |
| Day 3 | Sector rally | 50% | ADRO |
| Day 3 | Sector rally | 50% | AADI |
The desk replays this scenario in the browser, with no account and no install. It ships the counterfactual baseline alongside the shock, so you can see what the event changed rather than only what happened.
23 scenarios in the library, each anchored to a real IDX event or recurring pattern.