BI hikes to defend the rupiah; costlier funding dents bank NIMs and growth stocks.
Every scenario is anchored to something that actually happened on the Indonesia Stock Exchange.
2024: BI held/hiked amid rupiah weakness toward 16,700/USD; a higher BI-Rate is a negative signal for bank returns in the panel data (negative and significant effect on bank stock returns).
What the scenario injects, and when. Day numbers are trading days from the start of the run.
| Day | Shock | Severity | Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 3 | Earnings miss | 30% | BBCA |
| Day 3 | Earnings miss | 50% | DCII |
| Day 3 | Earnings miss | 30% | TLKM |
The desk replays this scenario in the browser, with no account and no install. It ships the counterfactual baseline alongside the shock, so you can see what the event changed rather than only what happened.
23 scenarios in the library, each anchored to a real IDX event or recurring pattern.