The finance minister is replaced; markets test fiscal credibility overnight.
Every scenario is anchored to something that actually happened on the Indonesia Stock Exchange.
Sep 8-9, 2025: Prabowo replaced Sri Mulyani with Purbaya; IHSG fell ~1.6% on the reshuffle day after hitting an intraday record 8,022; rupiah forecast to slide toward 16,550/USD as credibility is re-priced.
What the scenario injects, and when. Day numbers are trading days from the start of the run.
| Day | Shock | Severity | Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 2 | Policy shock | 60% | Market-wide |
The desk replays this scenario in the browser, with no account and no install. It ships the counterfactual baseline alongside the shock, so you can see what the event changed rather than only what happened.
23 scenarios in the library, each anchored to a real IDX event or recurring pattern.