Speculative retail pile into small-cap 'gorengan' names; sharp unwind.
Every scenario is anchored to something that actually happened on the Indonesia Stock Exchange.
Recurring pattern Purbaya cited in 2025: 'gorengan' stocks (low float, concentrated) build parabolic retail-driven rallies that unwind violently when MSCI or OJK signal cleanup.
What the scenario injects, and when. Day numbers are trading days from the start of the run.
| Day | Shock | Severity | Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 5 | Sector rally | 80% | BRMS |
| Day 5 | Sector rally | 70% | HMSP |
| Day 5 | Sector rally | 60% | ENRG |
| Day 12 | Passive outflow | 90% | BRMS |
| Day 12 | Passive outflow | 80% | HMSP |
| Day 12 | Passive outflow | 70% | ENRG |
The desk replays this scenario in the browser, with no account and no install. It ships the counterfactual baseline alongside the shock, so you can see what the event changed rather than only what happened.
23 scenarios in the library, each anchored to a real IDX event or recurring pattern.