President mandates energy exports run through state-owned firms; energy names gap down.
Every scenario is anchored to something that actually happened on the Indonesia Stock Exchange.
May 21, 2025: IHSG -3.54% to 6,094 after Prabowo's SOE export policy at the DPR; energy sector led the drop (-6%), compounded by a 10% participating-interest handover to regional governments.
What the scenario injects, and when. Day numbers are trading days from the start of the run.
| Day | Shock | Severity | Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 2 | Earnings miss | 80% | ADRO |
| Day 2 | Earnings miss | 70% | PTRO |
| Day 2 | Earnings miss | 60% | CUAN |
| Day 2 | Earnings miss | 60% | DSSA |
| Day 2 | Policy shock | 70% | Market-wide |
The desk replays this scenario in the browser, with no account and no install. It ships the counterfactual baseline alongside the shock, so you can see what the event changed rather than only what happened.
23 scenarios in the library, each anchored to a real IDX event or recurring pattern.