Government pushes budget cuts; contractors and commodity-heavy names take the hit first.
Every scenario is anchored to something that actually happened on the Indonesia Stock Exchange.
2025 'budget efficiency' program: markets wavered over whether it was austerity or reallocation; state revenue shortfalls (partly Coretax rollout) plus the ambiguity drove IHSG weakness in H1 2025.
What the scenario injects, and when. Day numbers are trading days from the start of the run.
| Day | Shock | Severity | Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 2 | Earnings miss | 60% | ADRO |
| Day 2 | Earnings miss | 40% | TPIA |
| Day 2 | Policy shock | 50% | Market-wide |
The desk replays this scenario in the browser, with no account and no install. It ships the counterfactual baseline alongside the shock, so you can see what the event changed rather than only what happened.
23 scenarios in the library, each anchored to a real IDX event or recurring pattern.