MSCI warns on IDX free-float transparency; passive funds de-risk ahead of a possible exclusion wave.
Every scenario is anchored to something that actually happened on the Indonesia Stock Exchange.
Oct 2025: MSCI's new free-float methodology (lower of issuer vs KSEI data) hit the IHSG from its 8,355 high; Jan 27, 2026 MSCI freeze drove an 8% intraday drop with a trading halt, ~$2.2B expected outflow.
What the scenario injects, and when. Day numbers are trading days from the start of the run.
| Day | Shock | Severity | Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 5 | Passive outflow | 80% | BBRI |
| Day 5 | Passive outflow | 70% | SRAJ |
| Day 5 | Passive outflow | 90% | AMMN |
| Day 5 | Passive outflow | 80% | BRMS |
| Day 12 | Passive inflow | 100% | BREN |
| Day 12 | Passive inflow | 50% | BBRI |
The desk replays this scenario in the browser, with no account and no install. It ships the counterfactual baseline alongside the shock, so you can see what the event changed rather than only what happened.
23 scenarios in the library, each anchored to a real IDX event or recurring pattern.